Betting maths and calculators
Why does my probability calculation change after I include a push outcome?
Direct answer
A push refunds the stake and must be modelled as a distinct outcome rather than treated as a win or loss.
How to use this answer
The principle is supported by the referenced rules, but a different operator or market can apply a different settlement condition. Treat the named provider as a specific example, not as a universal betting rule.
Use the precise stake, decimal odds, market terms and outcome probabilities when calculating the result. Expected value measures an average over hypothetical repetitions, not a guaranteed profit.