Betting maths and calculators
How do I explain why the favourite does not always win?
Direct answer
A favourite has the highest estimated chance among competitors, not a 100% probability.
How to use this answer
This answer is based on the mathematical principle or published rule identified in the source below. If the question involves a live betting market, confirm its settlement definition before applying it to a specific bet.
Use the precise stake, decimal odds, market terms and outcome probabilities when calculating the result. Expected value measures an average over hypothetical repetitions, not a guaranteed profit.