Betting maths and calculators
What is the difference between expected value and the probability of winning?
Direct answer
Win probability measures frequency; expected value weights every possible outcome by its gain or loss.
How to use this answer
This answer is based on the mathematical principle or published rule identified in the source below. If the question involves a live betting market, confirm its settlement definition before applying it to a specific bet.
Use the precise stake, decimal odds, market terms and outcome probabilities when calculating the result. Expected value measures an average over hypothetical repetitions, not a guaranteed profit.